Return on corporate communications: write the counterfactual before the result

Corporate communications return on investment is calculable only after the buyer defines both eligible financial value and full cost. A published statement, employee message, mention, click or enquiry is not itself cash. This method uses blank fields for Cedar Vale Engineering Ltd's fictional England site-consolidation communication and makes no return claim.

The review date is 6 September 2026. It applies evaluation discipline to one private buyer decision; it does not turn government guidance into a company accounting rule.

Record what happened before assigning credit

Start with observed data under named ownership. Finance records eligible cash inflows, cash outflows, credits and write-offs for the stated period. Communications records controlled outputs and corrections. Analytics records defined events with missingness and deduplication. None of those records explains cause on its own.

Keep four columns:

1. observed value from a reconciled source;
2. value assigned by a stated attribution rule;
3. scenario output created from explicit assumptions;
4. causal increment estimated against a credible counterfactual.

Do not move a value between columns without a reviewer, method and evidence ID.

Define cost consistently

The denominator must name currency, VAT status, period and included activities. Include supplier cash, internal labour, implementation, content production, accessible formats, rights, legal and privacy review, security, monitoring, correction, incident response, maintenance and exit where relevant. State exclusions beside the formula.

HM Treasury's Green Book 2026 distinguishes appraisal from evaluation and calls for options, risk and uncertainty to be considered in government decisions. Its concepts can prompt a transparent private decision, but its public-sector social-value measures are not Cedar Vale's commercial return.

Write the counterfactual before the result

The question is not merely what followed communication. It is what would plausibly have happened under the chosen comparison, such as the unchanged manual route or a different authorised intervention. Record the comparison population, period, exposure rule, other changes, missing data and reasons the groups may differ.

The Magenta Book, updated 15 May 2026, is central-government evaluation guidance. It covers scoping, design, conduct and interpretation, and says evaluation should be considered through design and delivery. It does not prove that Cedar Vale's communication caused any outcome.

Stop a causal claim when the counterfactual cannot address material alternative explanations. The buyer may still report descriptive observations or a transparent attribution rule, labelled correctly.

Use blank formulas

observed financial balance = eligible realised cash inflows - eligible realised cash outflows

attributed contribution = observed eligible value x documented attribution share

estimated causal increment = observed outcome - estimated counterfactual outcome

financial return ratio = (eligible value - full eligible cost) / full eligible cost

Every term needs a unit, period, population, source, owner and uncertainty. The ratio is undefined when the denominator is absent, inconsistent or zero. Tax and accounting treatment requires qualified review.

Test sensitivity and the decision

Vary one uncertain assumption at a time: eligible value, attribution share, counterfactual outcome, internal labour, correction work or exit cost. Do not insert illustrative numbers. Record the switching value at which the decision changes and the evidence that would narrow uncertainty.

A scenario result is not a forecast. A favourable ratio does not prove causal impact, and no financial output overrides privacy, accessibility, legal, security or factual-approval failures.

The final record should say proceed, hold or stop for the specified decision only. Without reconciled buyer inputs and a defensible comparison, Cedar Vale can report costs and observed events but must withhold a return or causation conclusion.